Jordan hails US-Russia plans for Syria peace conference


Jordan’s Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, meeting with US Secretary of state John Kerry in Rome Thursday, threw his support behind the US-Russian call for a Syria peace conference later this month. With over 500,000 Syrian refugees and 2,000 more coming every day, Jordan’s envoy said it’s imperative that a transition get underway to a political resolution that preserves Syria’s multi-ethnic society and borders.

“We are extremely encouraged by the results of the Secretary’s meetings in Moscow with the President and with the Foreign Minister and salute your achievements in that regard by identifying a path forward,” Judeh said at a meeting with Kerry at the US ambassador’s residence in Rome Thursday.

Jordan’s position, Judeh said, is that there “has to be a transitional period that results in a political solution that includes all the segments of Syrian society, no exclusion whatsoever…preserves Syria’s territorial integrity and unity, and…guarantees… pluralism and opportunity for everybody.”

Judeh said he was heading to Moscow Thursday for further discussions.  On Tuesday, Judeh issued a joint call  with Iran’s visiting Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi for both sides in Syria’s civil war to enter talks on a transition government.

Kerry, on the final leg of a trip to Moscow and Rome, said Thursday that he had sent US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford on to Istanbul to meet with the Syrian opposition and begin work to persuade them to come to the peace conference. They have expressed misgivings because it would get underway before any agreement on the departure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, although US officials insist US policy hasn’t changed and that they do not see any possibility where Assad could remain the leader of Syria. Continue reading

Iran, Jordan call for Syria transition talks


Iran’s Foreign Minister, on a rare visit to Jordan Tuesday, called on the Syrian regime and opposition to enter talks on forming a transitional government.

“We have called for talks between the Syrian government and the peaceful opposition to form a transitional government,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said at a joint conference with his Jordanian counterpart Nasser Judeh in Amman Tuesday, Agence-France Press reported.

“We have advised the Syrian government to sit with the opposition but not with Al-Nusra,” Salehi added, referring to the Syrian offshoot of Al Qaida in Iraq, that has been listed as a terrorist group by the United States but been among the more militarily effective anti-Assad militias on the ground in the conflict.

Salehi’s two day visit to Jordan, a close US ally, comes amid a flurry of intensified regional and international diplomacy on the Syria conflict, and as the United States and Europeans consider stepped up measures to aide the Syrian opposition on the ground while pushing the two sides into transition talks.

“We’re working intensively with a range of partners to strengthen the Syrian opposition and help shift the balance on the ground, which is essential to any chance of shifting Asad’s calculus,” Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said in a speech at Princeton University Saturday.

Secretary of State John Kerry was in Russia Tuesday for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to try to find “common ground” on Syria. Kerry is due to meet with Jordan’s Nasser Judeh in Rome on Wednesday.

Salehi, meantime, was scheduled to travel on to Damascus later Tuesday for a meeting with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, IRNA and AFP reported. Qatari Prime Minister Hamad al-Thani, a key backer of the Syrian opposition, is due to make a rare visit to Iran next week.

Iran’s stepped up diplomacy on Syria in the wake of Israeli strikes in Syria over the weekend is part of Tehran’s “hedging” strategy, to ensure “the Islamic Reublic retains influence in Damascus irrespective of he outcome of the civil war,” Iran analyst Suzanne Maloney wrote at the Brookings Institution website Tuesday.

“Iran hopes to preserve at least a vestige of its ally Bashar, but has also sought a seat at the table in shaping post-Asad Syria in any formal regional dialogue,” Maloney wrote. Tehran also has “a genuine national interest in precluding the expansion of Sunni extremism.”

Iran has continued to be involved in a regional dialogue on how to resolve the Syria crisis with Egypt and Turkey, a member state diplomat, speaking not for attribution, told al-Monitor Monday. (Saudi Arabia has refused to attend the meetings of the regional ‘quartet’ because of Iran’s presence, the diplomat said.)

A high level US Defense Department delegation is also currently in Jordan for meetings of the US-Jordan Joint Military Commission, that got underway Monday. Continue reading

Obama administration calls for full investigation into chemical weapons use in Syria


The Obama administration notified Congress Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community has newly assessed that Syria probably used chemical weapons, but cautioned that further tests are necessary and said it is pressing for the United Nations to conduct a comprehensive investigation.

“Our intelligence community does assess with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent sarin,” the White House said in a letter to Congress Thursday.

The new assessment, announced by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in the United Arab Emirates Thursday, was finalized in the past twenty four hours and received with evident reluctance by the Obama administration, which has expressed strong misgivings about the prospect of deeper entanglement in a new Middle Eastern conflict.

But the administration decided to publicly release the findings, which were contained in an assessment requested by some members of Congress, as several allied governments and foreign officials, including in Israel, the UK and Qatar, have made similar claims, to press for a comprehensive probe.

The US intelligence assessment “is based in part on physiological samples,” the White House letter said. But it cautioned that “the chain of custody” of the physiological samples it tested “is not clear, so we cannot confirm how the exposure occurred and under what conditions.” Blood samples and soil samples are the type of physiological material that would be tested for chemicals, a western diplomat said Thursday.

“Precisely because the President takes this issue so seriously, we have an obligation to fully investigate any and all evidence of chemical weapons use within Syria,” the White House letter said.

“Given the stakes involved, and what we have learned from our own recent experience, intelligence assessments alone are not sufficient,” the White House letter said, obliquely referring to past flawed US intelligence assessments that Iraq had WMD. Only “credible and corroborated” facts will guide US decision-making, it continued.

It’s important that any evidence be “air-tight,” a senior US official later echoed in a press call.

The White House said it was consulting closely with allies, particularly the UK and France, in considering possible next steps. Vice President Joe Biden was also meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah on Thursday. Hagel announced last week that the US was sending an additional 200 US troops there.

Earlier Thursday, a French official said the French government did not have conclusive evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Syria, but had strong concerns, and was also pressing for a broader UN probe.

“France does not have proof of the use of chemical weapons at this stage, but France is actively investigating with its partners,” the French official, speaking not for attribution, told journalists. Continue reading

Israeli military intel chief traveling to Washington

IDF intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi is traveling to Washington for consultations with American officials, defense sources told Al-Monitor.

Israeli officials declined to confirm the focus of his visit, but it comes amid signs of heightened Israeli concern about Syria.

“Hezbollah has set up several bases in Syria, near known locations where Syrian President Bashar Assad is holding parts of his chemical warfare arsenal,” Ynet’s Ron Ben-Yishai reported Monday.

Netanyahu “recently held a number of security assessments focusing on the developments in the war-torn country,” the Ynet report said. “Israel’s defense establishment has been holding similar assessments, focused on the potential shift in the balance of power between the IDF and Hezbollah, in the event that the latter would get hold of Assad’s WMDs.”

Netanyahu spoke by phone with President Obama on Monday, following a meeting Sunday with US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro.

Netanyahu also dispatched his National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror to Moscow, reportedly to seek Russian help in averting various Syrian contingencies.

Continue reading

Turkey’s Erdogan meets Iran’s Ahmadinejad on Syria

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a surprise meeting with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the sidelines of a regional economic conference in Baku, Azerbaijan Tuesday, to discuss Syria.

The Turkish leader proposed that Turkey, Egypt and Iran might hold three-way talks on resolving the Syria conflict, that has sharply strained relations between Ankara and Tehran. While Iran has backed its ally the Assad regime, Turkey has supported the opposition, while hosting an influx of over 100,000 Syrian refugees and fighting escalating border clashes this month after Syrian mortar killed five Turkish civilians.

Continue reading

Reports: Turkey intercepts Syrian plane

Turkey on Wednesday forced a Syrian passenger plane en route from Moscow to Damascus to land in Ankara, suspecting it of carrying warms for the Bashar al Assad regime.

“TRT says the Airbus A320 coming from Moscow was intercepted by F16 jets Wednesday as it entered Turkish airspace and escorted to the capital’s Esenboga Airport,” the Associated Press reports.

“A Turkish Foreign Ministry official confirmed that a Syrian plane was forced to land at Ankara airport, and that authorities were ‘inspecting the plane’ but would not provide further information,” the AP report said.

Reading list: Red lines, not deadlines, on Iran

  • “The U.S. is ‘not setting deadlines’ for Iran and still considers negotiations as ‘by far the best approach’ to prevent the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. (Indira Lakshmanan, Bloomberg)
  • “Israel and the United States are in discussion on setting a ‘red line’ for Iran’s nuclear program, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.” (Reuters)
  • “We call on the government in Iran to come back to the table with substantial offers, which is very necessary and very crucial at this time.” (German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, Reuters)
  • IAEA chief Yukiya Amano, ahead of IAEA board of governors meeting Monday, calls for immediate access to Iran site, says he’s frustrated. (IAEA; Reuters)
  • “What statesmen do when faced with bad options is create new ones. The third choice in this case is to negotiate a deal that lets Iran enrich uranium for civilian use….that applies rigorous safeguards…that gradually relaxes sanctions and brings this wayward country into the community of more-or-less civilized nations.”  (Bill Keller, New York Times)
  • “Immediately after the US presidential election, …Ehud Barak is certain to resume his antics and carry on where he has left off, and the countdown will start all over again.” (Ben Caspit, Maariv/Al-Monitor)

US-Israel strategic dialogue meets in Israel

Senior American and Israeli officials met in Israel Thursday as part of the semi-annual U.S.-Israel strategic dialogue.

The US delegation to the high-level diplomatic consultations was led by Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns, and the Israeli by Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon.

“Special attention was paid to the ongoing changes in the region, which present both challenges and opportunities for progress,” a joint readout from Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the State Department said Thursday.

A chief focus of the consultations was “Iran’s continued quest to develop nuclear weapons, which the United States and Israel are both determined to prevent,” the readout continued. The two delegations also discussed the  humanitarian crisis resulting from Syria violence, and its potentially destabilizing implications for the region, particularly Israel’s neighbor Jordan.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is due to arrive in Israel on Monday for two days of meetings (July 16-17), her first visit in over two  years. She will also travel to Egypt.

Full readout on the Strategic Dialogue below: Continue reading

NATO offers solidarity with Turkey but muted on response over downed plane

NATO ambassadors, meeting in Brussels Tuesday, expressed strong solidarity with member nation Turkey over Syria’s downing of a Turkish military reconnaissance plane last week (June 22). But the 28-member military alliance remained muted on the looming question of what further action it may be willing to contemplate, vowing only to “remain seized” of developments.

“Let me make this clear: The security of the Alliance is indivisible,” NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a press briefing following the meeting of the North Atlantic Council Tuesday.  “We stand together with Turkey in the spirit of strong solidarity.”

“I would certainly expect that such an incident won’t happen again,” Rasmussen said. “Should anything happen Allies will remain seized of development, we closely monitor the situation and if necessary we will consult and discuss what else could be done.”

The White House, echoing the expressions of solidarity from Brussels, also praised Ankara’s “measured response” so far.

“The United States and NATO stand in solidarity with Turkey,” White House spokesman Jay Carney told journalists on Air Force One Tuesday.  “We will work with Turkey and other partners to hold the Assad regime accountable and to continue to push forward for Syria’s needed political transition.”

“We commend Turkey for its measured response thus far,” Carney added.

The meeting in Brussels came as reports emerged Tuesday suggesting the downed Turkish aircraft–an unarmed RF-4E Phantom reconnaissance fighter jet–may have been conducting a spying mission over Syria. But Turkey’s deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc, while acknowledging in comments Monday the craft was outfitted for espionage, “strongly denied it was doing so on this particular mission,” the New York Times reported, in an article noting that the downed 2-seat aircraft “has the ability to gather high-resolution imagery about 60 miles from the target, aviation experts said.”

Syria says the plane was shot down in self-defense after straying into Syrian airspace and that it did not know it was a Turkish plane. Ankara vehemently denies this, hinting it has some  technological evidence–such as intercepted radar communications–to prove it.

Back in Brussels Tuesday, the military alliance did not discuss possibly declaring the plane downing an attack on the entire alliance, Rasmussen indicated. Such an invocation of NATO’s Article 5 has only once occurred—after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States. Continue reading

Syrian opposition: Show us the money

My colleague Barbara Slavin reports:

At a “Friends of Syria” meeting in Istanbul April 1, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates promised with much fanfare that they would provide $100 million in salaries to the embattled fighters of the Free Syria Army.  So far, however, no money has been forthcoming, according to Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian activist and fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

Abdulhamid, speaking Wednesday at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, suggested that the Obama administration had urged the Gulf countries not to give the funds for the time being. Abdulhamid said that the Saudis and Qataris were “not enamored” of the Syrian National Council, even though the umbrella group has been recognized by the Friends of Syria as a “legitimate representative” of the Syrian people. Continue reading